Europska komisija je objavila makroekonomska predviđanja za zemlje Europske unije (Winter 2017 Economic Forecast | European Commission).
U tablici ispod nalaze se ažurirana predviđanja za Hrvatsku.
Napominjemo da, u odnosu na jesensku prognozu (studeni 2016), u 2017. rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP) se povećao sa 2,5% na 3,1%
Croatia – Based on 3Q’s strong GDP growth (2.9% yoy, 1.7% qoq) supported by strong domestic demand (3.4% yoy in personal consumption, 2.1% yoy in government consumption, 2.9% in investments) and exports (6.3% yoy, out of which services exports grew by 7.4% yoy), we upgraded 2016 our growth estimate to 2.6% (previously 2.3%). Based on better-than-expected 2016 GDP performance and the expectation that the EU will keep growing in 2017 at a similar rate than in 2016, but above all based on maintained domestic consumption growth and looser fiscal policy in the runup to spring local elections, we upgraded our 2017 growth forecast to 2.9% yoy. We expect that a hike in net wages amid a lower personal income tax burden, combined with the hike in public sector wages and improved labour market conditions, will positively affect household spending, while investment activity is expected to benefit from c.30% higher EU funds inflows. We found that risks to our baseline scenario are at the moment broadly balanced, although higher-than-expected rises in oil prices could undermine disposable income and consumption growth.
Croatia – The positive developments in the real sector of the economy continued in the third quarter, especially in July and August increased by 4.4% and 5.1% year on year, respectively, due to improved labor market conditions and a strong tourist season.
Croatia – stronger than expected realization in the first quarter (+ 2.7% GDP growth), and the positive trend continues (industrial production to 5.0% and the real retail trade turnover by 3.2% in April, on an annual basis), in parallel with the forthcoming tourist season and improved conditions in the labor market, it is our view that the economy will develop with a solid growth rate of + 1.8% year on year in 2016.